Blog/Polling
'Trump effect' may cost Conservatives victory in Canadian election
The Liberal Party of Canada appears on course for a narrow victory in Monday’s federal election, holding a 3-point lead over the Conservatives. Our poll shows the Liberals on 40.5% of the vote – up eight points from the 2021 election – with the Conservatives on 37.5%, a four-point increase since last time out. Focaldata conducted the fieldwork between April 18 and 23, surveying 2,826 respondents.

A small Liberal majority appears the most likely outcome on these numbers, though a hung parliament remains possible. Using a basic ‘Strong Transition Model’ with swings modelled on a regional basis, our central estimate would be around 180-185 seats for the Liberals, just over the 172-seat threshold required for a majority. However, with only 61% of Canadians certain of their vote choice, and Conservatives the most committed at 69%, there remains plenty of potential for last-minute shifts.
The poll revealed that Donald Trump’s deeply negative standing among Canadians (net favourability rating of -61) could prove decisive for the Conservatives’ chances. In a hypothetical scenario in which Kamala Harris had won the 2024 US presidential election and Canada-US relations were more ‘normal’, voters put the Conservatives ahead by 4 points, suggesting Trump’s recent actions have had a potentially-decisive 7-point impact on the result.

Among voters who say Trump’s actions have influenced their vote ‘moderately’ or ‘a great deal’ (43%), Carney’s Liberals dominate with 53% of the vote compared to the Conservatives’ 25%.

Trump has seriously damaged his country’s reputation north of the border with voters of all stripes. Almost half of Canadians now view the United States as either ‘unfriendly’ or ‘an enemy’ of Canada.

When asked about the biggest issues facing the country in this election, the cost of living and inflation (60%), Canada-US relations and Donald Trump (39%) and healthcare (38%) come out on top. Among those who select inflation as a top issue, Pierre Poilievre holds a narrow 2-point lead as the candidate best equipped to handle it. However, regarding Canada-US relations, Carney holds a commanding lead of 64% to 20%.

Using a weighted average, Carney and the Liberals hold a lead of 5 points over Poilievre’s Conservatives on the best placed to deal with Canada’s most important issues, suggesting the fundamentals more or less match the headline voting intention results.
Despite Justin Trudeau’s poor favourability ratings (a net score of -35), Carney has effectively distinguished himself from his predecessor.. A plurality of voters (46%) say Carney ‘mostly represents something different from Justin Trudeau's leadership’, and will base their decision on whether or not to vote for the Liberals primarily on Carney’s recent leadership rather than the party’s decade-long record.
One key metric which gives us some doubt on the result is what’s known as the ‘wisdom of the crowds’. Instead of asking people for their own voting preferences, we ask how they think their neighbours will vote and who they think will win in their local area. This methodology has its advantages. It can help to nullify social desirability bias of survey answers – a respondent might not be willing to admit that they will personally vote for a certain party or candidate, but they might reveal their true preference once that question is deferred to their neighbours. Likewise, it can reduce non-response bias and give us some insight into the preferences of voters who are less likely to respond to polls. Voters who take surveys possess knowledge and information about their local area, whether that’s through observing street signs and election posters or directly speaking to their neighbours about the election, which would not otherwise be picked up in surveys which only ask about their own voting behaviour.
There is evidence that this methodology can work. In November last year, our surveys of local voter expectations closely matched Trump’s victories across all seven swing states, and back in 2016, it successfully predicted the ‘Leave’ vote in the EU referendum in the UK. This quasi ‘snowball sampling’ approach may help access harder-to-reach or ‘shy’ voters and should not be overlooked as a data point.
At this election, voters typically think their neighbours and local area will vote Conservative, rather than Liberal. After excluding ‘don’t knows’, the Conservatives hold an 8-point lead on the ‘who do you think your neighbours will vote for?’ question, and a 5-point lead on ‘which party do you think will get the most votes in your local area?’.

In other findings, Canadians strongly reject becoming the 51st US state (81% opposed, rising to 93% among Liberal voters), but a plurality back European Union membership. A clear majority (61% to 16%) would favor a hypothetical ‘Anglosphere Union’ with the UK, Australia, and New Zealand.
Recent events have notably affected consumer behavior, with three-quarters of Canadians taking defensive actions against the US since Trump's election. These actions include buying more Canadian goods (64%), avoiding US products (53%), steering clear of US banks and services (21%), and canceling US travel plans (31%).
Data tables for this survey can be found here.
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