HOPE not hate: Reform segmentation

HOPE not hate conducted a poll using Focaldata, exploring the social and political attitudes of the British public. We surveyed a nationally representative sample of 43,335 adults in the UK between 1 August and 11 September 2025. The data was weighted by gender, region, education, and age interlocked with 2024 General Election vote.

We ran a segmentation analysis on a subsample of 11,342 people who said they would vote for Reform UK if a general election were held in the next few weeks. The segmentation was designed using factor analysis to identify latent dimensions underlying survey responses and Gaussian Mixture Models to categorise respondents based on their factor scores. This modelling procedure produced five archetypes of Reform UK supporter: Working Right, Hardline Conservatives, Squeezed Stewards, Contrarian Youth, and Reluctant Reformers.

“Swearing in of Sarah Pochin MP (Runcorn and Helsby, Reform UK)” by House of Commons, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0