Westminster voting intention: Reform's lead drops to 5 points

Our first Westminster voting intention poll of 2026 shows Reform UK on 26%, down three points on our previous poll and at its lowest level since April 2025.

The Conservatives have recovered two points since the end of November and now stand at 20%, while Labour has edged up one point to 21%.

Reform's decline may in part reflect a shift in issue salience. Immigration and asylum, long a key driver of support for the party, appear to have become less prominent in voters’ minds, as global events have dominated the news agenda in recent weeks. In this survey, 35% of respondents cited immigration and asylum as one of the most important issues facing the country, down from a peak of 49% in mid-November, when we first began measuring issue salience using open-text responses.

At the same time, concern about international affairs has increased. Following Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, 7% of respondents now list global conflicts among the most important issues facing the country, up from 2% in our previous survey.

Data tables can be downloaded here.