After Donald Trump’s succession of early primary victories, and Nikki Haley’s stinging loss in Nevada on Tuesday, a Biden-Trump rematch seems all but inevitable come November. The outcome of that contest, however, is far from certain.

We look at how campaigning on social issues creates super-majorities in ways that on economic issues is more difficult. And we ask what polling on voting intention this far out implies for the next general election.

We look at whether the rise of Reform UK poses an existential threat to Conservative Party and why people feel drawn to Reform in the first place.

From deploying a new AI product to more than doubling our polling volumes, 2023 has been a busy year at Focaldata.

Think tank These Islands ran a poll with Focaldata of 1,037 Scottish adults (18+). Fieldwork was conducted between 6-18 October 2023.