Our MRP findings show that 89% of the 'Red Wall' think it's important the UK government keeps their promise to pursue a new free trade agreement with the EU.

All constituencies additionally believe that the cost of essentials will get worse if the UK leaves the transition period without a trade deal (72% think they will get worse, 28% better; for Labour to Conservative switchers in the Red Wall, 58% think they will get worse vs 42% better).

The major predictors for thinking the cost of essentials will get better are voting Conservative/Brexit Party in 2019, and voting Leave in 2016, and the same is true for thinking it's somewhat important or not very important that the Government keeps their promise to pursue a free trade agreement with the EU (though there is strong support among all groups for the Government keeping their promise).

For the original article in the Spectator, see here. For full results, including constituency level opinion and summary results, see here.

Fieldwork was conducted between 29 May and 5 June 2020, with a sample of 5,317 adults including 1,768 from the 44 Red Wall constituencies. For more details on methodology see our methodology statement.