Blog/Polling
Democrats take the lead on the economy in new Focaldata x Financial Times poll
We are delighted to deepen our partnership with the Financial Times, one of the world's most trusted news organisations.
Focaldata and the FT recently launched a collaboration on our Workforce AI Tracker, tracking how artificial intelligence is reshaping work and employment across the economy in the UK and US. Today we are expanding that partnership into US political polling.
Starting this month, Focaldata will be conducting a monthly poll of American voters for the FT throughout the 2026 midterm election cycle. Each wave will track how voters across the country are thinking about the issues, candidates, and political forces shaping this election, giving FT journalists and readers a high-quality data series to follow as the midterms unfold.
But we won't just be reporting topline numbers. Each month we'll be exploring what's actually driving voting behaviour, exploring party brand and voter associations, tracking the early shape of the 2028 presidential field, and identifying the issues and candidates gaining or losing ground beneath the surface. The goal is to give both of our audiences genuinely analytical polling, rather than mere horse-race snapshots.
Results will be published on the Focaldata website and on ft.com as part of the FT's midterms coverage.
The headlines
The Democrats hold a 7-point lead in the House of Representatives generic ballot, leading 52% to 44% with registered voters (excluding those who would not vote). The party’s lead has been steadily growing over the course of the year, and the 52% recorded this month marks their highest figure so far, while the Republicans remain static on 44%.
We have seen a large turnaround in fortunes for the Democrats on issue handling, with the party now ahead on all but three issues. Among the 47% of respondents who selected ‘inflation and the cost of living’ as one of their top issues, 41% backed the Democrats as the best party to handle it, versus 36% for the Republicans, a net lead of 5 points. This marks a greater than 30-point shift since the 2024 election, when our polling gave Donald Trump a 28-point lead over Kamala Harris on that issue.
Immigration remains the Republicans’ strongest issue, and this is also where President Trump records his strongest approval ratings, but the issue is being drowned out on the salience front by economic and foreign policy concerns. Immigration was the second-most important issue in 2024, but now ranks fifth.
Donald Trump’s overall approval rating remains fairly stable, and ticks up to 37% in this survey, but a 55% disapproval share is the highest we have recorded in 2026, keeping him solidly negative on a -18 net rating.
Kamala Harris and JD Vance remain the two frontrunners for the 2028 presidential primaries in their parties, at 38% and 40% with likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, respectively. Over the coming weeks, Focaldata will be publishing some comprehensive analysis of the 2028 presidential landscape, looking at favourability, Americans’ responses to candidate videos, electability perceptions and head-to-head matchups. This analysis should give us some early signs on whether an outsider could win the nomination for their party in 2028.
This poll was conducted between 1 and 5 May 2026, with a sample size of 3,612 US adults. Results were weighted by age group, gender, region, education level, ethnicity, recalled 2024 presidential vote, recalled 2020 presidential vote, and political interest.
Data tables for the poll can be downloaded here.
