Patrick Flynn
Following the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we used our qualitative research tool, Focaldata AI, to gather debate viewers’ opinions on the event.
We recruited 20 panellists for our study, of which 11 were female and nine were male. In 2020, 10 voted for Joe Biden, eight voted for Donald Trump, and two did not vote. All of our respondents said they watched last night's debate in full.
Kamala Harris was seen as the clear winner of the debate. Of our 20 respondents, most thought Harris won – 12 selected the current vice president, while five opted for Trump, and three said it was a tie.
Respondents did not simply vote on partisan lines, though. Three of the Trump 2020 voters we interviewed thought the debate was tied or Harris won. One, a 57-year-old white woman from Texas, thought that Harris only won because she ‘had help from the moderators’; but another, a 53-year-old white woman from Florida, noted that Harris ‘got [Trump] to blow up and react instead of staying calm and sticking to the point’.
Donald Trump’s bizarre claims about Haitian migrants eating people’s pets in Ohio was seen as the most impactful or memorable moment of the debate, with the word 'eating' appearing 18 times in the transcripts of our 20 respondents.
As bizarre and potentially humorous as the response was, many respondents saw the claim as further evidence for their negative views on Trump. Participants said the moment was ‘incredibly strange’ and made him look ‘unprepared’, though a minority of respondents believed the (unsubstantiated) claims.
‘These things might work in the MAGA world but they sound ridiculous otherwise. They show his bad judgment.’ — 65-year-old white woman, Rhode Island
Harris was seen as strong on abortion, healthcare and support for middle-class Americans. Her calm demeanour, composure and clear plans were seen as a key strength in contrast to Trump’s brash performance and lack of detail.
‘She was calm and composed. She spoke clearly and laid out her agenda for the next four years and spoke to her specific plans.’ — 35-year-old white woman, Virginia
Asking respondents for their overall impressions of the two candidates in the debate, we again saw the contrast between Harris and Trump. ‘Strong’ and ‘professional’ were the words most associated with Harris’ performance, with a clear impression of quiet confidence pervading the responses.
‘[Harris] showcased a confidence not seen before from a woman, especially a black woman.’ — 30-year-old black man, Maryland
Views of Trump, on the other hand, were much more scattered, with ‘angry’ the only word which received more than one use in our transcripts.
The important question is whether the debate actually changed anyone's mind. While many respondents suggested that their opinions were merely reinforced rather than changed, we did find a few respondents coming out of the debate with a more positive view of Kamala Harris. One respondent said that the debate ‘significantly improved my view of her’, with her control and courage praised in particular. Another, who was anti-Trump to begin with, came out the event with a more pro-Harris mentality.
‘Now I feel Harris will make a decent President.’ — 67-year-old white male, Virginia
While most views were unchanged, it’s fairly clear who viewers thought came out on top. As one respondent put it, this was a debate between ‘one articulate vision and one angry man’.
From early impressions, it seems like Harris did what she needed to do last night, introducing herself to the electorate as a competent and confident potential president. Time will tell whether this filters through into a bump in the polls.