Blog/Polling

Focaldata's latest Westminster voting intention poll shows Reform UK leading Labour by 4 points, which narrows to 3 points when 16 and 17-year-olds are included.

The poll, conducted from July 14–18, shows the following results: Reform UK: 26%; Labour: 23%; Conservative: 19%; Liberal Democrats: 14%; Green Party: 9%.

Including 16 and 17-year-olds in the franchise benefits the Greens and Labour, with both gaining 0.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Reform UK, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats each lose 0.2 points.

Among 16 and 17-year-olds specifically, Labour leads with 35% of the vote, followed by the Greens at 19% and Reform UK at 17%. Caution is advised on over-interpreting these results, however, given the smaller sample size compared to a typical poll.

Current politicians face significant challenges in winning over this potential new voter group. All politicians tested received net-negative favourability ratings, and many remain largely unknown to Britain's youth (69% didn't know enough about Kemi Badenoch to form an opinion, while 66% said the same about Ed Davey).

Of those recognised by most 16 and 17-year-olds, Jeremy Corbyn (14% favourable, 20% unfavourable) holds the "least bad" net favourability rating. Keir Starmer stands at -19, Nigel Farage at -28, and Donald Trump ranks lowest at -55. A new Corbyn-led party has potential to threaten Labour's standing among these young voters.
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Data tables can be accessed here.

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For more of our work on the attitudes of Britain's youth, you can find our work with the John Smith Centre here.