Blog/Polling

Focaldata's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted August 15–19, shows Reform UK leading Labour by 5 points.

Nigel Farage’s party tops the poll with 29%, followed by Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 18%, the Liberal Democrats on 14% and the Greens on 8%.

The new party being formed by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana receives 4% support when included in a separate version of the voting intention question (full prompt: ‘Your Party (provisional name for new party founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana)’).

Important caveats for those reporting on this new party's polling performance:

1. Polling hypothetical parties is challenging. The public has limited information and can often project their own desires onto a blank slate (poll watchers may recall when the ill-fated Change UK briefly reached 18% in one survey back in 2019). Currently, the party lacks a leader, formal structure, policies, and even a final name. The polling picture should become clearer once these elements are established.
2. Survey descriptions can affect results. We used a simple party description, while other pollsters who described it as ‘left-wing’ or explicitly mentioned Jeremy Corbyn and/or Zarah Sultana as leaders have recorded vote shares up to 15%. Neither approach is necessarily the correct one, but this may explain some differences in results.
3. Some pollsters have opted to ask people if they would consider voting for the party, which typically results in much higher shares. It’s important not to equate consideration with direct voting intention in reporting these figures.
4. Question wording may influence responses. Our voting intention question asks: ‘If there was a general election held in the next few weeks and these were the parties standing, who would you vote for?’ The ‘next few weeks’ timeframe might suppress support for a party that may not be formally launched by then.

Elsewhere on the left, 38% of Brits would support Zack Polanski in the ongoing Green Party leadership election if they could vote — almost double the support for Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns’ joint ticket (20%). We showed respondents one video from each campaign before asking for their preference.

When excluding those who say they don’t know or would not vote, Polanski receives 65% of the binary vote and leads across all age groups, regions and parties.

As speculation about the Autumn budget increases, voters generally prefer spending cuts to tax increases, especially younger voters. Those under 45 favour spending cuts over tax rises by 55% to 21%, while voters aged 45+ are more divided (38% preferring cuts, 31% choosing tax increases). Just 13% of Brits say they would be happy to pay more tax if it meant higher spending on public services.

Data tables can be found here.

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Image of Nigel Farage by Gage Skidmore

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