Blogs

A sizeable amount of the variation among pollsters stems from a somewhat existential approach to polling itself — are polls 'nowcasts' of the current moment in time, or are they forecasts of actual voting behaviour if a general election really were held today?

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has a very wide range among pollsters, from 15 points (J.L. Partners) to 27 (YouGov). However, at this month’s local elections, the BBC’s Projected National Vote share pointed towards a single-figure lead for Keir Starmer’s party. So what explains these large gaps, and which source is closest to Labour’s ‘true’ lead?